Google's SHOCKING "POST AGI" paper...
TL;DR
DeepMind says AGI is only the beginning: The paper explicitly maps four paths from AGI to ASI and even discusses a further limit called universal AI, which Wes frames as unusually bold language coming from Google DeepMind rather than an outsider blog post.
ASI does not mean one god-model: Under the paper's definition, artificial superintelligence could be a collection of systems that together exceed human ability across virtually all domains, much like today's narrow superhuman systems such as AlphaGo and AlphaFold but generalized.
The four routes to ASI are already visible: DeepMind lists scaling laws, algorithmic paradigm shifts, recursive self-improvement, and multi-agent group formation, and Wes notes that coding agents and coordinated model ecosystems may already be early signs of the last two.
The hard limits on intelligence are far beyond human scale: The paper points to ceilings like the speed of light, computational irreducibility, P vs NP, and the halting problem, which Wes interprets as evidence that there is no special reason intelligence would stop neatly at human level.
AlphaGo's Move 37 is used as a creativity proof point: Wes highlights the paper's distinction between combinational, exploratory, and transformative creativity, arguing that self-play systems already showed non-human insight by making a move experts initially thought was simply wrong.
Roth ties the paper directly to today's AI arms race: He connects DeepMind's forecast to Anthropic's rise, xAI's reported $60 billion Cursor deal, Sergey Brin's coding-agent push at Google, and McKinsey's projected $7 trillion data center buildout by decade's end.
The Breakdown
Google DeepMind just published a paper arguing AGI is not the finish line but the "starter pistol," and that cruising from human-level AI to ASI within 10 to 20 years is a real possibility. Wes Roth reads it as the toned-down institutional version of Leopold Aschenbrenner's "Situational Awareness," with the same core message: once AI research itself gets automated, the slope could get very steep, very fast.
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