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SpaceX just BLEW UP...
TL;DR
Wes says the SpaceX IPO could hit next month at a roughly $2 trillion valuation — he frames it as potentially dwarfing Saudi Aramco’s 2019 $29 billion IPO and says the filing could happen this week with a launch by next month or early June.
The real fight is over control, not just valuation — Wes argues the proposed SpaceX AI structure gives Elon Musk effective protection from being removed, with Class B shares delivering 79% voting power on 42% equity so a repeat of the Delaware/Tesla compensation fight can’t happen.
He treats the Delaware Tesla case as the blueprint for this entire IPO design — Wes recounts how Musk’s original $56 billion Tesla package was approved by 73% of shareholders, rejected after a lawsuit from a holder of just nine shares, then later restored by the Delaware Supreme Court after state reforms like SB21.
The same pension funds opposing Tesla comp are now lining up against SpaceX AI — he calls out New York State, New York City, and CalPERS specifically, noting they collectively oversee more than $1 trillion and were minority voters on Tesla but remain loud critics of Musk governance.
Under the hood, SpaceX is mostly Starlink right now — Wes pegs 2025 revenue at about $17 billion total, with Starlink contributing roughly $11 billion and growing about 50% year over year, compared with launch services at $4.5 billion growing around 5%.
His biggest long-range bull case is weird and huge: AI data centers in orbit — citing Google’s Project Suncatcher, he says launch costs have fallen from nearly $40,000 per kilogram to about $1,600, and Google believes prices could reach roughly $200/kg by the mid-2030s, making space-based compute economically viable.
The Breakdown
A $2 Trillion IPO, and a Fight Already Brewing
Wes opens with the big claim: the SpaceX IPO timeline just got pulled forward, possibly to next month, and the valuation being floated is around $2 trillion. He immediately says the backlash is already here, with major pension funds from New York and California pushing back hard on governance terms that would make it nearly impossible to remove Elon Musk without his own consent.
Why Tesla’s Delaware Drama Still Matters
He spends a big chunk of the video walking through the Tesla compensation saga because, in his view, this is the reason SpaceX is being structured the way it is. The core example: Musk’s $56 billion Tesla package was approved by 73% of shareholders, then blocked after litigation brought by a Delaware shareholder with just nine shares — a case Wes describes as politically charged and deeply alarming to founders.
From Shareholder Votes to Delaware Reform
Wes notes Tesla shareholders voted again, this time with fuller disclosures, and still approved the package at 72%, which to him proved the original intent hadn’t changed. He says the fallout pushed companies to flee or threaten to flee Delaware, contributing to reforms like SB21 in 2025, and eventually the Delaware Supreme Court restored the original package; meanwhile, Tesla’s newer, even larger comp plan reportedly passed with 75% support.
SpaceX AI Is Built to Prevent a Repeat
This is where he ties the past directly to the IPO: “SpaceX AI,” as he says it will technically be called, is designed so courts and activist shareholders can’t undo founder control the same way. He highlights Texas law, including a 3% shareholding threshold for derivative suits, and says the Class B structure gives Musk 79% voting power on 42% equity specifically to stop another “nine shares plus a judge” situation.
The Pension Funds Wes Thinks Are Fighting the Wrong Battle
Wes calls out Thomas DiNapoli, the NYC comptroller, and CalPERS as repeat opponents from the Tesla fight now taking aim at SpaceX. His basic point is blunt: these funds manage enormous pools of money, often with mediocre 6–7% annualized returns over 20 years, yet they’re attacking what he sees as some of their most successful holdings like Tesla rather than the laggards.
What’s Actually Inside SpaceX AI
After the governance rant, he gets practical: SpaceX proper did about $17 billion in 2025 revenue by his estimate, and Starlink is the monster inside it at roughly $11 billion, or 60–70% of the total. He adds a personal aside here — he’s used Starlink at home, had the dish bolted to his roof, and says the whole experience was surprisingly smooth and consumer-friendly.
Launch Services, Starshield, and Google’s Space Data Center Bet
The next bucket is launch services at about $4.5 billion, growing 5% year over year, with 165 Falcon 9 launches last year and roughly 85% of U.S. orbital launches. Then he gets genuinely animated about Google’s Project Suncatcher: a vision for AI data centers in space, with launch costs falling from around $40,000/kg to roughly $1,600/kg today and potentially to $200/kg by the mid-2030s, which he says could unlock “millions and billions and billions” in demand.
The xAI Piece Is Coming, but Not in This Video
He closes by briefly touching Starshield at about $2 billion and the xAI side — Grok, Colossus 1 and 2, a possible Anthropic deal worth $5–6 billion annually by Cathie Wood’s estimate, and Elon’s tease of a “V9” model plus Cursor data in training. But he intentionally cuts that deeper xAI discussion short, saying this video is really about the IPO umbrella and why he thinks the filing is imminent.
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