AskwhoCasts AIMay 31, 20266m

Til death or the Singularity - By Ajeya Cotra

TL;DR

"10 years" is her expected marriage length estimate: Cotra says that given AI timelines, a marriage started today probably lasts about a decade in expectation because either AI kills us or transforms life beyond current social contracts.
She expects superhuman AI within 7 to 8 years: Her forecast is millions or billions of AI agents that outperform the best humans at every skill, from Einstein-level physics to Musk- or Bezos-level company building and wartime strategy.
The singularity could be lethal before it is liberating: She names mirror bacteria, AI-enabled superweapons, US-China conflict, concentrated AI power, and AI takeover as plausible paths to disaster, saying our era may be more dangerous than the Cold War.
Her personal risk estimate is unusually concrete: At age 31, Cotra says she sees a 1-in-6 chance that AI kills her before her 40th birthday, which gives emotional weight to her broader argument about planning life under extreme uncertainty.
If we survive, marriage runs into sci-fi edge cases immediately: She asks what happens if one spouse wants to upload and the other does not, or if parents can fully specify a child's genome, or if AI partners become "supernaturally perfect."
Her replacement vow is "until death or the singularity": Instead of pretending today's promise can sensibly cover millions of years and radical self-modification, she suggests couples survive the transition first, then pause and decide what their new life should be.

The Breakdown

Ajeya Cotra argues that if you marry today, the expected length of your marriage may be only about 10 years because superhuman AI could bring either catastrophe or a singularity that makes current vows feel meaningless. Her case is stark and personal: she puts a one-in-six chance on dying from AI before age 40, then asks what marriage even means if people can upload, rewrite themselves, or live for millions of years.